Gross gaming revenue (GGR) for June is expected to fall to a range of MOP17 billion (US$2.11 billion) to MOP18.1 billion, representing a month-on-month decline of 10 to 15 percent.
The fresh forecast comes from HSBC Holdings plc, whose analysts expect gaming demand to be hit by the ongoing UEFA European Football Championship, running from 14 June to 14 July.
According to analysts Charlene Liu, Jessie Lu and Lauren Cai, the first 16 days of the month saw approximately MOP9.7 billion in GGR. This translates to an average daily run rate of MOP606 million per day, down 7 per cent from May’s MOP651 million.
“Last week’s run rate dropped 18% sequentially to MOP533 million per day. Apart from the lower VIP win rate (2.7-2.9% vs. 2.8-3% in the previous week), gaming demand may have been diluted by sports betting around the ongoing UEFA Euro 2024 tournament,” the analysts wrote.
If the June forecast proves to be accurate, it will be around 72 to 76 per cent of the comparable level in 2019.
Is limited freebies distribution significant?
Casino operators are believed to have changed the way they distribute free snacks under pressure from the government, and HSBC analysts believe that a potential change in policy would only affect footfall rather than GGR.
“This also takes into account that players can still redeem token loyalty points for snacks and drinks — this should help to further buffer any impact on GGR,” they wrote.
“That said, the situation remains fluid and the final requirements will take time to finalise between the government and operators.”
The government’s decision was reportedly a response to complaints from local business groups, who had argued that the offer of free food at casinos had affected the business of local small and medium-sized enterprises, leading to a decline in tourist spending within the local community.
